US retail to hit $6.2 trn as in-store sales stay dominant: Forrester
US total retail sales, excluding automotive and gasoline, are forecast to rise to $6.2 trillion by 2030 from $5.2 trillion in 2025, according to Forrester’s latest US Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2025 to 2030.
The projected growth reflects resilient consumer demand despite tariff-related uncertainty early in 2025, supported by stable inflation and interest rates, low unemployment, and wage growth outpacing inflation.
However, spending patterns are diverging, with higher-income households driving growth while lower-income consumers remain focused on essentials. The research notes a widening divergence in spending patterns across income groups.
US e-commerce sales are projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2030, accounting for 29 per cent of total retail sales. Growth will be driven by demographic shifts as Generation Z enters the workforce, improvements in logistics enabling faster and more reliable fulfilment, and technology innovations such as agentic commerce.
Retailer strategies, including curated marketplaces, are also expected to expand product selection and unlock additional retail media opportunities.
Physical retail will continue to dominate overall sales. In-store channels are forecast to generate $4.4 trillion in 2030, representing 71 per cent of total retail sales. Forrester highlighted that tangible experiences, immediate gratification, product comparison, social interaction and personalised assistance will remain core strengths of brick-and-mortar retail.
Reflecting this, retailers are prioritising investments to enhance the in-store experience through technology. Key initiatives include empowering store associates, improving customer self-service, strengthening omnichannel inventory visibility, expanding product assortments, and stepping up efforts to prevent shoplifting and theft to maintain secure retail environments.
US retail sales excluding automotive and gasoline are forecast to rise to $6.2 trillion by 2030 from $5.2 trillion in 2025, driven by resilient demand, stable inflation and strong labour markets.
E-commerce is set to reach $1.8 trillion, or 29 per cent share, while in-store retail will still dominate with 71 per cent, supported by experiential strengths and tech-led store investments.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
